Global equities faced a challenging week, primarily driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Iran. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq experienced declines amid investor unease over the potential for broader conflict, with the U.S. contemplating involvement. Markets showed resilience earlier in the week, supported by progress in U.S.-China trade talks, but sentiment soured by Friday due to renewed concerns over the Iran-Israel conflict. Small-cap stocks, as measured by the Russell 2000, outperformed large-cap indices, gaining 0.5% for the week. Economic data releases were mixed, with the Philadelphia Fed business conditions index underperforming expectations at -4.0, signaling weaker manufacturing activity, and leading economic indicators for May falling 0.1%, in line with consensus. Investors also monitored the Federal Reserve’s stance, with no rate changes expected at the upcoming meeting, though tariff-related inflation risks were highlighted.
S&P 500 Closing Price: 5,967.84, -0.15% WoW and +1.47% YTD.
Nasdaq Closing Price: 21,626.39, - 0.02% WoW and +2.92% YTD
GOLD
Gold experienced safe-haven demand during the week due to Middle East tensions, but it still posted a weekly decline. Posts on X noted gold’s role as a hedge amid geopolitical uncertainty, with prices rising earlier in the week alongside oil. However, the lack of sustained momentum and a stronger U.S. dollar limited gains.
Oil prices saw volatility during the week, with WTI ending the week 3% up. The conflict between Israel and Iran raised fears of supply disruptions, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for 20% of global oil trade. Analysts are speaking about $100 oil prices.
Strongest Currency: The U.S. dollar gained modestly, boosted by safe-haven demand amid geopolitical uncertainty WITH DXY rising 0.54% this week.
Weakest Currency: The Japanese Yen (JPY) was among the weakest, pressured by Japan’s central bank’s reluctance to tighten monetary policy despite rising inflation, reducing support for the currency.
CRYPTO
Cryptocurrency markets saw continued momentum. The U.S. Senate’s approval of the GENIUS ACT, a milestone stablecoin bill, fueled optimism for broader crypto adoption, boosting stocks like Coinbase (COIN) and stablecoin issuer CRCL, which rose over 75% for the week.
Philadelphia Fed Business Conditions (June): Reported at -4.0, worse than the consensus of -1.0, indicating weaker manufacturing activity. Prices paid index fell to 41.4 from 59.8, new orders dropped to 2.3 from 7.5, and employment weakened to -9.8 from 16.5.
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting (June 17–18): The Fed was expected to maintain the federal funds rate at 4.25%–4.50% for the fourth consecutive meeting. Investors focused on the Fed’s “dot plot” for future rate projections and Chair Powell’s press conference for guidance on tariff-driven inflation risks.
This Week's Top Gainer in US Markets (excluding small caps under $2B market cap)
TMC rallied after easing investor dilution fears. The company amended previous stock warrant terms, which is expected to reduce share issuance. This follows a significant $85.2 million investment deal with Korea Zinc announced earlier this week, boosting confidence and financial flexibility.
After a Senate committee proposed accelerating the phase-out of solar tax credits to 2028. This legislative threat, aimed at funding President Trump's "Big, Beautiful Bill," directly impacts companies like Enphase, a key micro-inverter supplier. Analysts, like KeyBanc's Sophie Karp, responded by downgrading the stock, reflecting increased bearishness on the sector's future given existing challenges.
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